Caribbean crude and heavy product exports rise 45%, lifting tanker demand

Caribbean Basin exports of crude oil and heavy products have climbed 45% year-on-year, adding volumes equivalent to 880,000 barrels per day, according to a BIMCO analysis carried by Hellenic Shipping News. Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, cited Signal Ocean data showing a year-to-date increase of 234 million barrels against 2025.

After allowing for higher transhipment volumes through the Bahamas, BIMCO estimates that the region has contributed 210 million new barrels to the market, equivalent to 790,000 barrels per day. That makes it the biggest source of additional barrels for dirty tankers this year. The Caribbean Basin has also become the eighth-largest export area, moving ahead of the Black Sea and Marmara Sea, the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.

The analysis distinguishes that growth from the increase in Red Sea loadings. Exports from the Red Sea area have risen by 1.9 million barrels per day, but BIMCO attributes this to Saudi barrels being redirected from the Persian Gulf rather than new supply. Saudi Arabia’s overall exports have declined by 1.7 million barrels per day over the same year-to-date period.

Venezuela and Guyana have driven the Caribbean expansion, lifting the basin’s share of global exports to 6.1%, compared with 3.9% in 2025. Suezmax tankers have carried all the additional Guyanese exports, while Aframaxes and LR2s have also handled Venezuela’s growth. Across the basin, Suezmaxes accounted for 48% of the extra barrels, followed by LR2s at 29% and Aframaxes at 14%.

The increase in cargo volumes has outpaced the rise in transport demand. More Venezuelan oil has gone to the US and India, while shipments to China have fallen. BIMCO estimates that average sailing distances for Caribbean Basin exports have shortened by almost 10%, limiting year-on-year tonne-mile demand growth to 31%.

BIMCO expects further export growth, although Venezuela’s potential depends on planned investment and production being realised. Rasmussen pointed to the country’s proven oil reserves of more than 300 billion barrels. Guyana already has production expansion planned, with the International Energy Agency forecasting that its exports could rise by another 210,000 barrels per day in 2027.