Container carriers are accelerating their return to Red Sea routes, with weekly offered capacity on services already using, or preparing to use, the passage in at least one direction doubling in six weeks, according to Xeneta analysis published by Hellenic Shipping News. The shift could significantly affect freight rates and service patterns heading into 2027 as vessel capacity becomes available elsewhere in the global fleet.
Scheduled weekly capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb reached 448,273 TEU on 5 October, Xeneta reported. That represented 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023, before vessels began taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. Nevertheless, the doubling since 27 August 2026 marked a substantial change in carrier strategy, according to Xeneta senior shipping analyst Emily Stausbøll.
Stausbøll said carriers themselves would need to explain which changes in their security assessments had supported the faster return. She noted that October offered a logical window for rerouting because cargo volumes typically ease after the peak season. Congestion across global shipping networks would also absorb some of the released capacity temporarily. Xeneta identified the return to the Red Sea as an important factor for shippers assessing container market conditions in 2027.
Meanwhile, Far East-to-US spot freight rates had been broadly unchanged for a month, although Xeneta expected downward pressure to increase after Golden Week. Carriers removed 58,200 TEU from scheduled Far East-to-US West Coast sailings during the reporting week and 35,500 TEU from the East Coast trade. With US-bound rates still recording triple-digit percentage gains against February levels before the Hormuz crisis, Stausbøll interpreted those cancellations as an attempt to defend existing prices rather than position for further growth.
Far East-to-Europe spot rates, by contrast, had steadied after sustained declines, rising 2.5% week on week into North Europe and 3.2% into the Mediterranean. Xeneta attributed this to supply and demand moving towards balance. Rates into the US East Coast remained more than three times those into North Europe, a gap Stausbøll considered unsustainable. She expected convergence to come principally from falling US rates, with a smaller contribution from strengthening European prices.