Uncertainty over the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework is putting shipping’s 2030 zero-emission fuel ambition at risk, despite expanding bunkering infrastructure and vessel capability. According to gCaptain, a new assessment by the UCL Energy Institute and Getting to Zero Coalition finds that technological gains are being undermined by weaker demand, financing and policy signals.
The framework secured agreement in principle last year but still awaits formal adoption. It would progressively tighten limits on the greenhouse gas intensity of marine fuels, charging higher-emitting vessels while rewarding cleaner energy use. The delay leaves shipowners, fuel producers and lenders without a settled global regulatory basis for long-term investment. The assessment described the failure to adopt it as the biggest setback to the transition in the report’s five-year history.
Figures reported by gCaptain show the share of global orderbook tonnage capable of using scalable zero-emission fuels declining from 9.5% to 5.7% over the past year. Sustainable debt issuance specifically for shipping also fell, from $3.4 billion in 2024 to $3 billion in 2025. In contrast, the number of ports providing methanol bunkering rose from 19 to 29, operational methanol-capable tonnage tripled, and the industry carried out its first ammonia bunkering operations and sea trials.
The 2030 ambition is for scalable zero-emission fuels to provide at least 5%, and preferably 10%, of international shipping’s fuel use, supporting the IMO’s net-zero greenhouse gas emissions goal for around 2050. The assessment found technology, zero-emission fuel supply and civil society engagement partially on track, while demand, finance and policy were off track. Investment decisions are particularly pressing because thousands of ships ordered over the coming years could still be operating well into the 2040s.
Governments remain divided over the framework’s economic mechanism, which is expected to raise roughly $10 billion-$15 billion annually. At the latest technical negotiations, 38 countries explicitly backed retaining carbon pricing and the revenue mechanism, while 17, mainly oil-producing states, opposed it over cost concerns, gCaptain reported. The United States is also a strong opponent; European countries, Pacific Island states and others argue that weakening the mechanism would damage alternative-fuel investment.
Further technical talks are scheduled for 23-27 November, ahead of MEPC 85 from 30 November to 3 December. Possible adoption is expected to be considered at an extraordinary MEPC session on 4 December. The coalition warned that prolonged uncertainty could postpone investment in ships, fuels and infrastructure as a major fleet renewal cycle approaches.